odds for GOP nomination for president, May 25, 2011

This data is from Somewhat different data apparently available from According to, there is a 45.7 percent chance the GOP will nominate a Mormon (Romney or Huntsman), an 11.9 percent chance a woman will be nominated (Palin or Bachmann), and very little chance Gingrich will get the nod. I’m not sure if this is relevant, but Gingrich has had 50 percent more wives than the 2 Mormon’s in the race, and the same number of wives as the three front runners.

There is more diversity in the GOP field this year than ever before. The odds favor Mormons, women and blacks by 63 to 37 percent over mainstream Christian, white, male candidates.